Climate change in the Rhine catchment

Since modifications of climate values impact the hydrological processes as well as the water regime, the ICPR has been dealing with the issue of climate change since the Conference of Rhine Ministers 2007.

Effects of climate change modify the discharge pattern of the Rhine and its tributaries. Presumably, periods with floods or low flow will become more frequent and more distinct. Floods may be higher and last longer and thus cause damage more often and to a greater extent. Low flow may limit navigation as well as water supply. In addition, low flow reduces groundwater recharge and affects the quality of groundwater. A rise in air temperatures leads to higher water temperatures which again – together with low flow – might result in countless ecological and chemical changes of water bodies (see reports below on past and future changes in water temperature and the effects of climate change on the ecosystem).

The ICPR updated the discharge scenarios for the Rhine basin using latest climate change findings in July 2024 (see report no. 297). The study presents new discharge projections at representative gauging stations for the near future (up to 2060) and the remote future (up to 2100) (see also detailed figures on the CHR website). As a consequence of climate change, it is generally expected that in the future winter flows will increase and summer flows will decrease. The hydrological regime will be characterised by discharge resulting more from rainfall than from melting snow and glaciers. More frequent heavy rainfall events, particularly in summer, are expected (see report no. 306 on the ICPR workshop "heavy rainfall and flash floods").

The discharge scenarios show a considerable range of possible evolutions. When developing adaptation strategies for the Rhine catchment, those wide ranges are taken into account. The climate change adaptation strategy of the ICPR is available as report no. 219 (2015) and will be updated by the end of 2025 as part of the Programme Rhine 2040.

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Report no. 309 (2025): Current scientific knowledge on the effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystems and biodiversity in the Rhine catchment area

Report no. 306 (2024): Report on the results of the workshop ‘Heavy precipitation events and torrential floods: new risks and options for action in the Rhine catchment area’

Report no. 302 (2025): Simulation of the effects of climate change scenarios on future Rhine water temperature development – update IPCC AR5

Report no. 301 (2024): Development of Rhine water temperatures from 1978 to 2023

Report no. 297 (2024): Climate change induced discharge scenarios for the Rhine basin (and press release)

Report no. 219 (2015): Climate change adaptation strategy for the IRBD Rhine