ICPR – International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine

297. Climate change induced discharge scenarios for the Rhine basin

Update of the discharge scenarios for the Rhine basin using latest climate change findings

As part of its Program Rhine 2040 entitled "The Rhine and its Catchment - Sustainably Managed and Climate-resilient", the ICPR mandated its climate expert group (EG HCLIM) with an update of the ICPR climate scenarios by 2024. This has now been completed and published as ICPR technical report no. 297. While the previous ICPR scenarios, published in 2011, were based on information of the 4th assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), this update generally relies on the 5th IPCC assessment. These new scenarios form the basis for updating the climate change adaptation strategy of the Rhine basin by 2025.

As a consequence of climate change, it is generally expected that in the future winter flows will increase and summer flows will decrease. The hydrological regime will be characterised by discharge resulting more from rainfall than from melting snow and glaciers.

Please consult the press release and the report for more details (see German, French and Dutch pages)

If you are looking for figures and graphs with very detailed results per gauge, please consult the CHR website.